Week 7 - Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints

Denver Broncos (-1.5 - 19 Implied Point Total) vs. New Orleans Saints (+1.5 - 17.5 Implied Point Total)

36.5 point over/under 

Bo Nix

QB #13 on the year - 15.71 fantasy points per game 

185.5 passing yard over/under (-114) and .5TD over/under (-220)

Bo Nix has steadily improved since he took his first NFL snap in September. Currently, he is averaging 180.33 passing yards (222.67 at home vs. 138 on the road) with .8TDs and .8INTs per game. That said, his first two games he threw 4 of his 5 total INTs on the year and over the past 3 weeks; he has thrown 5 TDs to his 1INT. His accuracy has been a little sporadic as he has ranged from a low of 48% in Week 4 to a high of 70.4% in Week 5. When you are seeing 2nd year QBs like Will Levis and Anthony Richardson barely completing 50% of their throws, Bo Nix is ahead of the curve. What has really separated Nix from some of the other rookie QBs this year has been both the trust that he has received from the coaching staff and his running ability. For the latter, he has been averaging 30 rushing yards (31.67 at home vs. 28.33 on the road) on 6.17 attempts with .5TDs per game. Those factors have led him to be the QB #13 on the year while averaging 15.71 fantasy points per game. The trust the coaching staff has shown him has definitely propelled his progression this season. As we have seen in places like New England, protecting a rookie QB can come at a cost. Brisset has not looked great all year and there were reports coming out that the locker room was on the brink of “mutiny”. What we have seen in places like Washington and Chicago on the other hand has been a combination of trusting the talent where you drafted them and dealing with some of the growing pains that come with being a rookie QB in the NFL. After Weeks 1 and 2, Caleb Williams was looking like a bust compared to where the team drafted him. Four weeks later and he is looking like he is on track to being one of the top 15 QBs by the end of the season. Jayden Daniels looked the part from Week 1 and has taken that confidence to continue to play at an elite level through the first 6 weeks of the season. I will be the first to admit I was not high on Bo Nix coming into this NFL draft. The Broncos offense as a whole looked like they would fall in the bottom 5 but as of right now they look to be one of the more surprising offenses and teams as a whole in the NFL. Vegas set his line at 185.5 passing yards with the over being -114 odds and a .5 passing TD line with the over being -220. Vegas clearly believes that Bo Nix should have a strong game on Thursday against the injury riddled Saints. The Saints defense ranks last in the NFL when it comes to yards allowed (29th passing/20th rushing).

Projection: 21/31 220 yards 2TDs/1INT - 7 attempts 50 yards 1TD

Javonte Williams

RB #38 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 6.93 fantasy points per game

45.5 rushing yard over/under (-114) and 18.5 receiving yard over/under (-114)

Javonte Williams this year is nowhere near the Javonte Williams of 2021 where he averaged 4.4 yards per carry and only 2 fumbles in 17 games. We all know what happened in 2022 with his catastrophic injury and some believed he could come back to his rookie form after another year away from his injury. Unfortunately, the human body can only take so much and it appears that Javonte might always be two or three steps slower than he was prior to the injury. Right now, Javonte is averaging 35.5 rushing yards (33.67 at home vs. 37.33 on the road) on 9.83 attempts with 0TDs this season. He is also averaging 23.83 receiving yards (37 at home vs. 10.67 on the road) on 4.33 targets and 3.33 receptions per game with 0TDs this season. He is the definition of volume leading to fantasy relevance as he is averaging 3.6 YPC this season which is the same as last year. Although he has been improving slightly over the past few weeks (77 yards in Week 4 on a 4.8 YPC and 61 yards in Week 5 on 4.7 YPC), he regressed back to the mean in Week 6 putting him at RB #38 on the year in Half PPR Scoring averaging 6.93 fantasy points per game. Vegas has set his rushing line at 45.5 yards with both the over and under at -114 with a receiving yard line of 18.5 with the over and under also at -114. Vegas believes that Javonte should see enough volume in this game but the results are in question.

Projection: 12 attempts 57 yards/5 targets 3 receptions 25 yards 1TD

Courtland Sutton

WR #36 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 8.36 fantasy points per game

46.5 receiving yard over/under (-114) and 3.5 reception total over/under (-138)

Courtland is basically the only WR that opposing defenses need to worry about. He has been on the field an average of 83% of the snaps this season and has a 33% first read target share this season (which is insane). He is averaging 46.2 receiving yards (37 at home vs. 43.33 on the road) on 7.83 targets and 3.5 receptions with .33TDs per game). He is sitting at WR #36 on the year in Half PPR Scoring averaging 8.36 fantasy points per game so far this season. The number that I think should be standing out the most is the almost 8 targets per game but the 45% catch percentage. A lot of that has to do with Bo Nix being a rookie QB, however; the separation score paints another picture. It is worth keeping an eye on as Sutton has never been a burner and has used his size for contested catches but with a rookie QB those throws might be harder to come by accurately. Vegas has his receiving yard over/under set at 46.5 yards with the over coming in at -114 with a reception total over/under of 3.5 with the over coming in at -138. Vegas is pretty confident that Sutton should exceed his season averages in this game against the defense that has allowed the most yards per game this season.

Projection: 10 targets 7 receptions 65 yards 1TD 

Devaughn Vele

WR #95 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 8.85 fantasy points per game

Played 62% of snaps last week

29.5 receiving yard over/under (-114) - Just changed to 31.5 receiving yards over/under with -114 odds for over as I am writing this article 

Vele is an interesting player as we don’t have a lot of historical data to go on. He has played 2 games this season with the first being Week 1 and the second being Week 6. Inbetween, he has been a healthy scratch 3 times and has missed one game due to an injury sustained in Week 1. Through his two games played, he is averaging 58.5 receiving yards (78 at home vs. 39 on the road) on 7 targets and 6 receptions per game with 0TDs. Denver is in need of a solid WR2 who can take some of the attention away from Sutton. Vele I don’t believe is elite by any means, however; he is consistent and trusted by Nix which makes him valuable as an NFL player. This week we will determine a lot more of the rest of his 2024 season. If he is on the field over 60% of snaps again and receives 6+ targets like he has in the first two games he has played; he might be a consistent flex option in deeper leagues. Vegas has his receiving line set at 29.5 yards this week with the over at -114. I believe the lack of historical data is leaving Vegas in a vulnerable position if Vele does see the field a lot this week (which as of writing this article Vegas is increasing his receiving line meaning they believe he will be a factor this week). 

Projection: 8 targets 5 receptions 51 yards 

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Spencer Rattler 

QB #39 on the year - 14.42 fantasy points per game

180.5 passing yards over/under (-114) with .5TDs over/under (-215)

The Reddit hype trains are out of control every year. I remember Ty’son Williams was going to be the second coming of AP and that Josh Gordon is still averaging 3TDs per half in 2024. Last week, Spencer Rattler was as good as 3rd year Mahomes on Reddit’s main Fantasy Football subs. Unfortunately, like most hype trains do; it got derailed after the first few possessions. Rattler himself did not look bad and at times even looked somewhat good for a rookie QB drafted in the 5th round. The problem is the expectations were set so high on him that he was bound to fail before the game even started. In his last start, he threw for 243 passing yards with 1TD and 2INTs on 55% completion while averaging 11.05  yards per completion. These stats can be somewhat misleading as he lost his WR1 in Olave after his first reception and Shaheed also dealt with some injuries throughout the game leaving Bub Means to be his primary target. The good thing is he also used his legs rushing for 27 yards on 4 attempts in Week 6. Vegas has set his line at 180.5 passing yards over/under with the over set at -114 and .5 passing TD over/under with the over set at -215. It is clear, Vegas believes New Orleans should be playing from behind which will result in Rattler having to pass more resulting in more yardage and scoring opportunities. 

Projection: 22/38 220 yards 1TD/1INT - 6 attempts 35 yards 

Alvin Kamara

RB #2 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 20.43 fantasy points per game

71.5 rushing yards over/under (-114) and 33.5 receiving yards over/under (-114) 

Kamara started the year exploding for 43 half PPR points in Week 2. From there, the decline has been steady but nowhere near the cliff that many people were projecting Kamara to hit this season. Yes, there is still time for him to find that cliff but it appears he might have another successful season or two left under his belt. Right now, Kamara is averaging 71.33 rushing yards (70 at home vs. 72.66 on the road) on 17.33 attempts with 1TD per game along with 39.66 receiving yards (30.33 at home vs. 49 on the road) on 6 targets and 4.67 receptions with .17TDs per game. He is solidly the RB #2 on the year in Half PPR scoring averaging 20.43 fantasy points per game. Amazing numbers for an aging RB that is close to the age cliff. Granted, Kamara is a product of necessity as injuries have ravaged their offense this season (ie. Olave, Shaheed, Carr, Hill, Miller, etc.) leaving him as the only one left to produce for the team. Vegas agrees as they put his rushing line at 71.5 yards with the over being -114 and his receiving line at 33.5 yards over/under with the over being -114. Kamara is the only show remaining in New Orleans and as long as he can avoid aggravating his current injuries, he should be in line for another monster game against a very good Broncos defense who are more susceptible to the run instead of the pass. 

Projection: 15 attempts 60 yards 1TD/9 targets 7 receptions 55 yards 1TD

Bub Means

WR #110 on Half Point PPR Scoring - 2.6 fantasy points per game (5 active games - 1 game where he received targets)

No Vegas Odds

The war of attrition has come to New Orleans and the Saints have lost. Bub Means is the next man up in the WR room as both Olave and Shaheed are dealing with injuries. After Olave left in Week 6, Means received 8 targets and had 5 receptions for 45 yards and a TD on 71% of snaps. He is the WR #110 in Half PPR Scoring this year averaging 2.6 fantasy points per game (although he has been active for 5 games but only targeted in 1). Vegas does not have odds set for him as of yet, however; once we know more about Olave and Shaheed’s availability that might change. 

Projection: 10 targets 6 receptions 60 yards 

Juwan Johnson

TE #24 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 3.97 fantasy points per game 

No Vegas Odds

For the past few offseasons we have been in the same spot with Juwan Johnson. We are always waiting for the breakout and are certain that this is finally the year it happens. Well, we are still waiting on that for Johnson as he has posted pedestrian numbers of 19.67 receiving yards (24.67 at home vs. 14.67 on the road) on 2.33 targets and 2 receptions with .17TDs per game. In the past, Johnson has at least been a TD magnet and seems to find himself in the right spots in the endzone. That has not been the case this year which has resulted in him being the TE #24 in Half PPR Scoring averaging 3.97 fantasy points per game which is useless for your fantasy lineup. Vegas has not set odds for him as of yet, however; that might change if the top two WRs for the Saints are ruled out for Week 7. There might be a world where he gets enough volume as a necessity to be a stream worthy TE option this week, however; the Broncos are ranked in the top 12 in terms of TE fantasy points allowed this year so it doesn’t seem promising. 

Projection: 5 targets 3 receptions 37 yards 

(Chris Olave and Rasheed Shaheed are both trending to be out this week which is why they were left off this analysis) 

Final Score = Denver Broncos 24 - New Orleans Saints 17