Week 6 - San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks - Not So Brief Armchair Analysis

Alright guys, I’m back! Sorry for the short hiatus but real life got in the way a bit (traveled out west and then went to a wedding on the east coast). For those of you who messaged me asking where my week 4 and 5 breakdowns were; I’m sorry for letting you down. But moving forward I should hopefully be able to do them weekly.

So without further delay; let’s dive into my armchair analysis for Week 6.

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) (25.5 IMPLIED PT TOTAL) vs. Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) (22 IMPLIED PT TOTAL)

47.5 point over/under

Brock Purdy

QB #12 ON THE YEAR - 16.35 FANTASY PTS PER GAME

253.5 PASSING YARDS OVER/UNDER - 1.5 PASSING TDs OVER/UNDER

The jury is still out on Brock Purdy and whether or not he falls within the “elite” QB category. The 49ers are going to have to make a huge decision soon on whether or not he is worth resetting the QB market when his 2nd contract comes due. In the meantime, Purdy has been playing serviceably, averaging 274.8 passing yards (254.33 passing yards at home vs. 305.5 passing yards on the road) with 1.2 TDs and .8 INTs per game so far this year. We all expected Purdy’s efficiency to fall this year; especially with the loss of CMC for at least the first 6 weeks. He is still completing 65.6% of his passes so far while averaging 31.4 passing attempts per game. Purdy has played somewhat poorly against the Seahawks in his career, averaging 264.66 passing yards against them (but only 213 passing yards when playing against them in Seattle). He averages 1.7 TDs per game vs. .7 INTs per game in his career against the Seahawks. Vegas is expecting Purdy to play up to his season average with a 253.5 passing yard over/under this week along with a 1.5 TD over/under. Seattle has played extremely well against the pass this year (allowing only 183 passing yards and 1.2 passing TDs per game) but poorly against the run (allowing 128 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD per game). It definitely appears Seattle has a run funnel defense and coupled with underperforming in his career on the road against Seattle along with the 12th man; this might be a somewhat down game for Brock.

Projection: 20/29 200 yards 1 TDs 1 INT

Jordan Mason

RB # 5 ON THE YEAR (HALF PPR) - 15.94 FANTASY PTS PER GAME

83.5 RUSHING YARDS OVER/UNDER (-155 ANYTIME TD SCORER - BEST ODDS IN GAME)

Jordan Mason has been a savior to a lot of us who drafted CMC or who gambled on CMC missing time this year. The RB #5 this year in Half PPR scoring, Mason has averaged 107.2 rushing yards per game on 21 attempts (119.67! Rushing yards at home vs. 88.5 yards on the road) along with 1.4 receptions per game and .6 rushing TDs. The definition of a workhorse back if there is one in 2024. He currently has some of the best analytics when it comes to yards after first contact and broken tackle metrics. Outside of the fumble that cost the 49ers the game last week; he has been exactly what the team hoped for when replacing CMC. With Seattle funneling offenses to run the ball along with the crowd noise; I would suspect Shanahan to run a little more than usual this game. CMC is also rumored to start practicing again this week (we have all heard this before) which might push Shanahan to use Mason a little more as well.

Projection: 26 attempts 119 rushing yards 1TD/3 targets 2 receptions 9 yards

George Kittle

TE # 2 ON THE YEAR (HALF PPR) - 13 FANTASY PTS PER GAME

47.5 RECEIVING YARDS OVER/UNDER

Every year George Kittle is undervalued heading into the fantasy draft season and it seems like every year he proves to us why his ADP is always wrong. Welcome back to the Kittle experience for 2024 as he is currently averaging 56.25 receiving yards (49.67 yards at home vs. 76 yards on the road) with .75 TDs per game. With the TE landscape the way it is currently, his 7.25 targets per game and 5.75 receptions per game make him elite. Currently, Kittle is sitting as the TE #2 on the year in Half PPR scoring averaging 13 fantasy points per game. Granted he missed a game earlier this year, however; he has only played a full season once in his career. Seattle has allowed 4.6 receptions per game to TEs this year along with 41.4 receiving yards and .2 TDs which doesn’t bode too well for Kittle. Vegas agrees as they put Kittle’s receiving over/under at 47.5 yards and have given him low scoring odds for the game.

Projection: 5 target 3 reception 39 yards

Brandon Aiyuk

WR # 37 ON THE YEAR (HALF PPR) - 8.38 FANTASY PTS PER GAME

62.5 RECEIVING YARDS OVER/UNDER (+160 ANYTIME TD SCORER ODDS - FIFTH BEST IN THE GAME)

He lives!! (insert Mu-Shu awakening meme from Mulan). Coming back from the dead; Aiyuk blew up last week in a loss with his best performance by far in 2024. Although he has yet to find the endzone, it is a relief to see that Aiyuk still knows how to catch a football. He is second on the team in receiving yards per game averaging 62.8 (74.33 receiving yards at home vs. 45.5 receiving yards on the road) while getting targeted 7.4 times with 4.2 receptions per game. It is entirely possible that last week happened solely because Deebo was schemed out of the game plan by the defense or due to his shoulder injury that held him out previously. I believe that the 49ers want and need to integrate Aiyuk back into their offense as he provides them with an explosive element that is missing without CMC. Vegas agrees as they put his receiving yards over/under at 62.5, which is the highest receiving yardage over/under for the 49ers. They have also given him the 5th best TD scoring odds in the game as well which means Vegas sees Aiyuk’s arrow as pointing up.

Projection: 10 targets 6 receptions 75 yards 1 TD

Deebo Samuels

WR # 38 ON THE YEAR (HALF PPR) - 10.35 FANTASY PTS PER GAME

55.5 RECEIVING YARDS OVER/UNDER (+125 ANYTIME TD SCORER ODDS - THIRD BEST ODDS IN THE GAME)

It is hard to gauge which direction Deebo is going in this season. During the off season there were tons of whispers about him being traded or Aiyuk being traded. Then CMC landed on the IR out of nowhere. Then the 49ers 1st round WR got shot in the chest so it looked like Deebo was primed to be a consistent low-end WR1/high-end WR2 for 2024. In Week 1, it looked like that was going to come to fruition as he finished as the WR12 in Half PPR scoring. After that, he hurt his CALF, missed Week 3 and has since been the WR43 and WR77 in Weeks 4 and 5 respectively. Granted, he is an older player coming off of an injury so that might contribute to his lower production. Also, Aiyuk has been ascending over the past two weeks which could coincide with the 49ers scheming away from Deebo somewhat. Honestly after CMC landed on IR, I figured the 49ers would run Deebo more from the backfield like they did in 2022. However, so far he has averaged 3.75 rushing attempts leading to 12 rushing yards per game. He is currently sitting at the WR #38 on the year in Half PPR scoring averaging 10.35 fantasy points per game. Most of his production has come from the air this year as he is averaging 58.25 receiving yards per game (41 receiving yards at home vs. 110 receiving yards on the road) on 6.75 targets and 4.25 receptions per game. He has yet to find the endzone through the air and only has one rushing TD so far this year. With Seattle’s run funnel defense; I do think we will see more of Deebo on the ground in Week 6.

Projection: 6 targets 4 receptions 48 yards/6 attempts 35 yards 1TD 

Jauan Jennings

WR # 11 ON THE YEAR (HALF PPR) - 13.34 FANTASY PTS PER GAME

NO VEGAS RECEIVING YARDS OVER/UNDER

Well Jauan has had one blow up week so far this year and from the looks of it, barring any unforeseen trades or injuries; I don’t believe he will be a consistent factor moving forward. In Week 3 he had 41 Half PPR fantasy points which gave him the foundation to be the WR #11 so far this year. He is averaging 75.4 receiving yards (55 receiving yards at home vs. 106 receiving yards on the road) on 6.2 targets and 4.4 receptions per game. Outside of that Week 3 anomaly, Jennings has gone back down to earth averaging 50.5 receiving yards in the other four weeks. He has not scored a TD outside of Week 3 and removing his 12 targets from that week, he has a 4.75 target average. Vegas does not have a line for Jennings’ receiving yards and has the 9th best odds to score a TD in the game. Jennings will be a better contributor on the field to win actual football games than he will be as a fantasy asset moving forward. With that said, if Deebo, Aiyuk or Kittle get injured throughout the year he is a solid plug and play.

Projection: 5 targets 3 receptions 37 yards

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Geno Smith

QB # 5 ON THE YEAR - 19.05 FANTASY PTS PER GAME

248.5 PASSING YARDS OVER/UNDER - 1.5 PASSING TDs OVER/UNDER

Well I guess last year’s Geno was the fluke and this year + 2022 was the real Geno. Currently, the Seahawks rank as one of the fastest pace of play teams on the year which bodes well for all fantasy assets connected to this offense. Geno is absolutely on fire averaging 293.2 passing yards per game (248 passing yards at home vs 361 passing yards on the road) with 1TD per game and .8 INTs per game so far this year. Hard to argue against the QB #5 who is completing right around 72% of his passes on 39.8 attempts per game! The issue with this game is that Geno has played so poorly over his career against the 49ers (averaging 205 yards per game with .3 TDs and .7 INTs). Vegas thinks that he will throw for 45 yards less than his 2024 average. The 49ers defense has been middle of the road against both the pass and the run this year comparatively to where they have been in the past. There is just something off about the 49ers offense which leads to the defense being put in poor positions. This week, I see the 12th man being a problem for the 49ers offense which will result in a few short field opportunities.

Projection: 25/36 267 yards passing 2TDs 1INT

Kenneth Walker

RB # 17 ON THE YEAR (HALF PPR) - 20.2 FANTASY PTS PER GAME

56.5 RUSHING YARDS OVER/UNDER (-105 ANYTIME TD SCORER ODDS - SECOND BEST ODDS IN GAME)

Outside of last week and the two missed games that he had in Weeks 2 and 3, Kenneth Walker has been amazing. Everything coming out of pre-season training camp said that the run game and specifically Walker would be the focal point of the offense. Even DK Metcalf said it in an interview after Week 1. That has been obvious as he has averaged 67.33 rushing yards (61 rushing yards per game at home vs. 80 rushing yards per game on the road) with 1.33 rushing TDs and 4.33 receptions per game. Great usage for a RB on a team with one of the higher paces of play in the league. Even missing those two weeks, Walker is the RB #17 on the year in Half PPR scoring averaging 20.2 fantasy points per game played. Vegas is high on Walker this week giving him the second best odds to find the endzone and putting his rushing over/under at 56.5 on the road against the 49ers. My one concern with Walker is the snap percentage he has been seeing as it has averaged around 64% per game. Let’s hope that Walker is able to see closer to 70% snap share this week, especially if they are playing from a lead.

Projection: 18 attempts 82 yards 2TD/4 targets 2 receptions 19 yards

Zach Charbonnet

RB # 14 ON THE YEAR (HALF PPR) - 12.62 FANTASY PTS PER GAME

NO RUSHING YARDS OVER/UNDER

Charbonnet has been everything a team would want in a back-up RB. He has been serviceable when thrust into the starting lineup and still contributes when he is operating as the backup to Walker. The Seahawks are definitely using the running game (and short yardage passing game with Charbonnet) to open up the bigger plays down the field. While Charbonnet is only averaging 33.4 rushing yards (38 rushing yards at home vs. 26.5 rushing yards on the road), he is making his money in the receiving game averaging 26.8 yards on 4.4 targets and 3.6 receptions per game. He is averaging .6 rushing TDs per game and .2 receiving TDs per game so far through 5 weeks. Even running as Walker’s backup for three weeks of the season; Charbonnet is RB # 14 on the year in Half PPR scoring averaging 12.62 fantasy points per game. With all that said, Vegas does not have a line set for his rushing or receiving yards for this game and has given him the 10th best odds to score a TD. Might want to keep him out of your lineups this week unless you are desperate.

Projection: 7 attempts 21 yards/5 targets 4 receptions 29 yards

DK Metcalf

WR # 12 ON THE YEAR (HALF PPR) - 12.82 FANTASY PTS PER GAME

66.5 RECEIVING YARDS OVER/UNDER (+145 ANYTIME TD SCORER ODDS - FORTH BEST ODDS IN THE GAME)

DK has been doing exactly what DK has done for his career. He will continue to have weeks when he blows up and goes over 100 yards and finds the end zone. Then there are weeks when he is relied on to move the sticks and will take a backseat to the running game. Even with him being somewhat inconsistent so far this year; he is averaging 84.2 receiving yards (62.66 receiving yards at home vs. 116.5 receiving yards on the road) on 8.6 targets and 5.6 receptions per game. He is averaging .4 receiving TDs per game so far and is solidly the WR #12 on the year in Half PPR scoring putting up 12.82 fantasy points per game. After last week’s debacle against New York; I am imagining that the Seahawks will focus on getting the ball in the hands of both Kenneth Walker and DK Metcalf early and often. Vegas agrees as they have DK’s receiving over/under set at 66.5 yards (highest receiving over/under in the game) while also giving him the 4th best odds to score a TD.

Projection: 13 targets 9 receptions 107 yards 1 TD

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR # 32 ON THE YEAR (HALF PPR) - 9.24 FANTASY PTS PER GAME

46.5 RECEIVING YARDS OVER/UNDER

I think the majority of fantasy players have expected JSN to take the Year 2 leap in 2024. After Week 2 we thought we might be seeing the breakout we were hoping for. I think we might want to pump the brakes a little bit for this year as he has not been able to produce consistently even though he has been given a large number of opportunities. Right now, JSN is averaging 51.4 receiving yards (29.66 receiving yards at home vs. 84 receiving yards on the road) on 8 targets and 5.8 receptions per game. He has found the endzone once this year averaging .2 TDs per game so far as well. While he is the WR #32 on the year in Half PPR scoring averaging 9.24 fantasy points per game, I think the statistics might be a bit misleading. In Week 2 he received 40% of his targets on the year (16). In Week 4 he received 30% of his targets on the year (12) but only produced 9.10 half PPR points on a 6.375 yard per reception average. Outside of those two weeks, he has not broken 7 targets or 4 receptions and has not gone over 40 yards receiving. This offense is humming and Geno Smith has been lights out. The issue is there are too many mouths to feed. DK is the 1 and they want to establish the run early with Walker. Charbonnet has been getting consistent opportunities and the leftovers have been split between JSN, Lockett, Fant and all of a sudden Pharaoh Brown. Until Lockett moves on or retires; I think JSN will remain the 3rd option at best in this offense.

Projection: 6 targets 5 receptions 55 yards

Tyler Lockett

WR # 48 ON THE YEAR (HALF PPR) - 7.68 FANTASY PTS PER GAME

44.5 RECEIVING YARDS OVER/UNDER

Lockett seems to be a better football player than he is a fantasy contributor at this point in his career. Geno definitely still treats him as a safety blanket when he gets into trouble and the offense continues to give him opportunities every week. Right now, he is averaging 54.8 receiving yards per game (66 receiving yards at home vs. 38 receiving yards on the road) on 6.4 targets and 4.4 receptions per game. He is currently the WR #48 on the year in Half PPR scoring, averaging 7.68 fantasy points per game even though he has not found the end zone yet. Vegas has given him a 44.5 receiving yard over/under and has set his odds to score as the 8th best in the game. I think we will continue to see a rollercoaster of fantasy production for this offense. From week to week, I believe there will be 2 offensive players who will boom and 2 who will bust. The question is; which is which?

Projection: 7 targets 4 receptions 45 yards 1TD

FINAL SCORE: Seattle Seahawks 28 - San Francisco 49ers 24

Edit: Shoulder to Calf for Deebo