Week 7 - Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings - Not So Brief Armchair Analysis

Thanks for stopping by to read my Not to Brief analysis. For those of you who read through my Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints breakdown earlier this week, I apologize for highlighting what might be the most boring game of the week.

Thankfully, we’ve moved onto what could/should be the most entertaining and high scoring game of week 7. There are some injury question marks in this game but I’ve tried to provide as many options as possible. As always, feel free to like and comment with any suggestions you have or questions!

Detroit Lions (+1.5 - 24.5 Implied Point Total) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-1.5 -26 Implied Point Total) 50.5 Point Over/Under (was 49.5 when lines came out 10/16)

Jared Goff QB #18 on the year - 18.1 fantasy points per game on 5 games played  252.5 passing yards over/under (-114 over)/1.5 passing TD over/under (-114 over)

Full disclosure, I placed a $100 future bet on Goff to win MVP this season and it has a profit cash out option right now so I am riding high. For now, Goff looks like he is back in mid-season form after his somewhat pedestrian first 3 weeks. He is averaging 266 passing yards (272 at home vs. 257 on the road) with 1.6TDs and .67INTs per game so far this season. He is completing 71.1% of his passes (which would be the highest in his career if the season ended today) on a healthy 29.8 attempts per game. Goff is the QB #18 on the year averaging 18.1 fantasy points per game but has only played 5 games so far (compared to Lamar who is QB #1 thru 6 games and is averaging 24.25 fantasy points per game). When you watch the game, Goff seems to be on autopilot. Nothing he does looks like it exerts effort and the Lions OC is so secure in his offense that he lined up an OL at WR last week during the blowout of the Cowboys. The only issue I see with Goff moving forward is the fact that he might not be needed in the 4th quarter very much. That could lead to a cap on his fantasy production as he would be losing out on 1-2 possessions per game. Seems as though Vegas believes the Lions will have a tough time moving the ball against the Vikings defense this week as they have set his passing yards line at 252.5 which is 14 yards lower than his season average.

Projection: 29/37 300 yards 3TDs 1INT 

David Montgomery RB #6 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 17.1 fantasy points per game on 5 games played  51.5 rushing yards over/under (-114 over)/9.5 receiving yards over/under (-114 over)/1.5 receptions over/under (+116 over) -105 Anytime TD Scorer (4th highest in game)

Montgomery is a paid man and will be on the Lions for the next few years to come. This is ultimately great news for Monty but could come at the expense of Gibbs (who we will discuss further down in this post). Montgomery is averaging 70.2 rushing yards (53.3 yards at home vs. 92.5 yards on the road), which would be the third highest rushing yardage average in his career; on 15 attempts with 1.2TDs per game. If that is not enough, he is also averaging 18.8 receiving yards (25.7 yards at home vs. 8.5 yards on the road) on 2 targets and 2 receptions per game as well. The Lions knew what they were doing when they extended his contract right before the Week 6 matchup. He is currently the RB #6 on the year in Half PPR Scoring averaging 17.1 fantasy points per game while only playing 5 games this year (Henry is RB #1 thru 6 games averaging 22.05 fantasy points per game). Montgomery will keep eating up defenses and providing the play-action opportunities that Jameson Williams has been eating up this year. This game however might pose a problem for Montgomery as he is facing the #2 defense in the NFL when it comes to rushing yards allowed this year (they are a pass funnel). Expect Monty to continue to get the opportunities but don’t be surprised if his production is a little less this week than most others. Vegas has really taken the Vikings defense into account this week as they have set Monty’s rushing line at 51.5 which is 19.5 yards lower than his season average but have given him -105 odds to score an anytime TD which is the 4th highest odds in the game.  

Projection: 15 attempts 62 yards 1TD/4 targets 2 receptions 25 yards

Jahmyr Gibbs RB #13 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 15.24 fantasy points per game on 5 games played 48.5 rushing yards over/under (-114 over)/19.5 receiving yards over/under (-114 over)/3.5 receptions over/under (+142 over) +140 Anytime TD Scorer (6th highest in game)

Everyone was freaking out during the pre-season about how much of a bust Gibbs was going to be this year when he tweaked his ankle right before Week 1. Well, it turns out that Gibbs is fine and has been picking up where he left off late last year as he has yet to score under 10 Half PPR fantasy points in a game this year. He is averaging 69.6 rushing yards (67.3 yards at home vs. 73 yards on the road) on 13.2 attempts with .6TDs per game so far along with 20.8 receiving yards (18.7 yards at home vs. 24 yards on the road) on 3.6 targets and 2.8 receptions with .2TDs per game as well. These stats put him solidly at the RB #13 in Half PPR Scoring averaging 15.24 fantasy points per game while only playing 5 games this season. Unfortunately, there are a lot of factors working against Gibbs raising his ceiling (Lions efficient offense and great defense leading to blowouts, Monty being the RB #1 and the closer in close games, his lack of size). He will continue to be an amazing fantasy asset, however; comparatively to where you drafted him and Monty he will be the disappointment between the two unless Monty gets hurt. That is not to say that Gibbs is not talented or deserving of more work (on most other teams he would be the RB1) but it is just the reality of his situation. This week, he might see a little more usage as he will be facing the #2 ranked defense in rushing yards allowed which means his receiving work could get an uptick especially if the Vikings can keep this game close. Vegas puts his rushing over/under at 48.5 yards which is 21 yards lower than his season average. Look for Gibbs to make up his lack of rushing through the air as Vegas has his receiving over/under at 19.5 yards (1.3 yards below his season average) and 3.5 receptions (.7 receptions more than his season average) this week. 

Projection: 10 attempts 44 yards/7 targets 6 receptions 60 yards 1TD

Amon-Ra St. Brown WR #20 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 13.34 fantasy points per game through 5 games  72.5 receiving yards over/under (-114 over)/6.5 receptions over/under (-138 over)/+130 Anytime TD Scorer (5th highest in game)

After Week 1, it looked like Amon-Ra St. Brown was being phased out of the offense. By Week 2, all of those fears went away. It appears there might be a little bit more inconsistency in his role in the offense due to all of the mouths to feed. That is generally not a bad thing in terms of producing a winning NFL team, however; for fantasy purposes it does hurt a little bit. As we have seen in Weeks 1, 4 and 6; his floor of 10+ targets a game is certainly not promised. Even with his lower production this season, he is averaging 57.8 receiving yards (59 at home vs. 56 on the road) on 8.4 targets and 6.2 receptions with .6TDs per game. He is the WR #20 on the year in Half PPR Scoring and is averaging 13.34 fantasy points per game through 5 games played (Chase is WR #1 through 6 games played and is averaging 17.25 fantasy points per game). The one stat that is the most concerning is his yard per catch average which is right around 9 yards at the moment. In his career, he has never averaged below 10 years per reception which is something to keep an eye out for. Since Amon-Ra has never been a burner and won’t win with his size, he has always been a PPR volume player who ended up scoring more TDs last year than was expected. Due to the offensive efficiency, Jameson William’s breakout and the Lion defense; we might be seeing a little regression from St. Brown this year. With that said, the Vikings pass funnel defense this week might bode well for St. Brown to have a monster game. Vegas agrees as they have his receiving yard over/under set at 72.5 which is 15 yards more than his season average. He also have the 5th highest odds to score an anytime TD (+130) so they think he is in a good spot this week.

Projection: 10 targets 7 receptions 110 yards 1TD

Jameson Williams WR #21 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 13.14 fantasy points per game through 5 games 48.5 receiving yards over/under (-114 over)/3.5 receptions over/under (-102 over)/+195 Anytime TD Scorer (8th highest in game)

Finally, Jameson Williams is paying off for those who have been rostering him in Dynasty or those who continued to hold the faith when his first two years were less than satisfactory. The breakout is officially here as he has already gained more receiving yards this year than he did in either of his first two years and almost as much as the first two years combined (395 yards in 2022 + 2023 vs. 365 yards in 2024). So far, he is averaging 73 receiving yards (93.3 yards at home vs. 42.5 yards on the road) on 5.8 targets and 3.2 receptions with .6TDs per game. He has also been involved in the rushing game averaging around 1 attempt for 6 yards a game (I would imagine if either Gibbs or Monty go out with injury Williams should see more rushing attempts). Vegas has set Jameson’s line at 48.5 receiving yards (24.5 yards lower than his season average) with 3.5 receptions (.3 receptions more than his season average). Williams has been on fire throughout the first few weeks of the season and we are seeing him siphon more targets from Laporta in games where Amon-Ra is a focal point. I would expect to see something similar here with Laporta being the odd man out this week even if Vegas does not agree.

Projection: 7 targets 4 receptions 60 yards 1TD

Sam Laporta TE #15 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 6.48 fantasy points per game on 5 games played  41.5 receiving yards over/under (-114 over)/3.5 receptions over/under (-132 over)/+200 Anytime TD Scorer (9th highest in game)

Sam Laporta has been somewhat of a disappointment this season compared to how he finished last season and the draft capital used to get him this year. Unfortunately, it looks like we are back to the pre-2023 TE landscape where it’s just a crapshoot. Laporta is averaging 39.8 receiving yards (37 yards at home vs. 44 yards on the road) on 3 targets and 2.6 receptions with .2TDs per game. This is a far throw from last year when he averaged 7 targets and 5 receptions with .58TDs per game. We knew coming into this year that Jameson Williams would be the deciding factor on a lot of the Lions’ offense. Unfortunately for Fantasy purposes, this has sunk Laporta’s value immensely. He is absolutely talented and is a top-5 TE in the NFL in terms of skill and is an essential cog in the Lions reaching the Super Bowl, however; that might not translate to Fantasy Football production this year. This week, however; the Vikings do struggle against TEs allowing 8 targets, 5 receptions and 51 yards this season on average. Expect Laporta to see some consistency this week against the vulnerable Vikings pass funnel defense. Vegas agrees as they have Laporta’s receiving line at 41.5 yards (1.7 yards more than his season average) on 3.5 receptions (.9 receptions more than his season average). It seems as though they think he will bounce back from his 1 reception game last week. They don’t think he will score, however; as he has +200 odds for an anytime TD which is 9th highest in the game. 

Projection: 6 targets 4 receptions 55 yards 

Sam Darnold QB #21 on the year - 17.31 fantasy points per game on 5 games played  246.5 passing yards over/under (-114 over)/1.5 passing TDs over/under (-114 over)

First and foremost, I am happy to see Sam Darnold playing well and moving past the experience he had with the Jets. I do really believe he had the talent to be a high caliber QB coming out of college but the coaching staff ruined him. I also just heard that he is dating the Hawk Tuah girl so I guess his life is really turning around? Anyways, he is averaging 222.2 passing yards (209.3 yards at home with 1 London game vs. 241.5 yards on the road) on 27.4 attempts with 2.2TDs and .8INTs per game completing 63.5% of his passes - which is the highest completion percentage of his entire career. He is the QB #21 on the year (but has only played 5 games) averaging 17.31 fantasy points per game (Lamar is QB #1 thru 6 games and is averaging 24.25 fantasy points in comparison). You cannot run on the Lions and generally speaking (outside of Dallas last week) the way to stay in the game is to pass. I expect Darnold and the Vikings to do just that this game and let it fly. Vegas agrees as they set his passing yardage line at 246.5, which is 24.3 yards above his season average. I am expecting a high scoring game, and so is Vegas as they have moved the over/under up 1 point since 10/16.

Projection: 31/41 289 yards 2TDs 1INT 

Aaron Jones RB #17 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 14.04 fantasy points per game through 5 games  -155 Anytime TD Scorer (highest in game)

I am not sure if Jones will play this week as he is coming off of a hip injury that flared up last week. The Vikings also traded for Cam Akers which is not a good sign for Jones’ health. With that said, Vegas believes Jones will play and has put his odds to score an anytime TD at -155 (best odds to score in the game). Over the season, he is averaging 70 rushing yards (54.3 yards at home with 1 London game vs. 93.5 yards on the road) on 14.2 attempts with .2TDs per game. He also is a staple in the passing game averaging 33.4 receiving yards (35.3 yards at home with 1 London game vs. 30.5 yards on the road) on 4 targets and 3.4 receptions with .2TDs per game. In Half PPR Scoring he is the RB #7 (on 5 games) and is averaging 14.04 fantasy points per game (compared to Derrick Henry who is RB #1 on the year in Half PPR Scoring thru 6 games averaging 22.05 fantasy points per game). I will admit, I was down on Jones coming into this year as he is an aging RB with an injury history on a new team whose identity has been passing. But, with fantasy, nothing is ever set in stone and the majority of our pre-season takes will be wrong. Vegas has yet to put out his rushing or receiving line as of writing this article, so they might be leaning towards him sitting at this point. If he plays, he should be a productive fantasy start this week, however; I would keep an eye on practice reports throughout the week to be sure. 

Projection (If Healthy): 12 attempts 45 yards 1TD/4 targets 3 receptions 30 yards 

Ty Chandler RB #58 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 4.38 fantasy points per game -155 Anytime TD Scorer (2nd highest in game) 

Ty is a little hard to gauge this week as Vegas has not set a rushing or receiving line yet but does have him at -155 odds to score an anytime TD this week. They must be hedging their bets in case Jones doesn’t play this week. Right now, Chandler is an afterthought for Fantasy when Jones is healthy; averaging 29.4 rushing yards (41.67 yards at home [1 London Game] vs. 11 yards on the road) on 8.4 attempts with 0 rushing TDs this year. He is also somewhat involved in the passing game averaging 8.4 receiving yards (3 yards at home [1 London Game] vs. 12.5 yards on the road) on 1.2 targets and receptions with 0 receiving TDs per game. Since Jones has stayed relatively healthy all season up until this past week, Chandler has been the RB #58 on the year in Half PPR Scoring averaging 4.38 fantasy points per game. He would be a great spot start this week if Jones misses, though Cam Akers has run this system before so he might not need a lot of time to get acclimated before this game. 

Projection (If Jones is Out): 15 attempts 50 yards/3 targets 2 receptions 27 yards

Justin Jefferson WR #7 in Half PPR Scoring - 16.4 fantasy points per game through 5 games played  91.5 receiving yards over/under (-114 over)/6.5 receptions over/under (-146 over)/-120 Anytime TD Scorer (3rd highest in game)

JJ is still the WR1 of the NFL and it’s not particularly close when it comes to fantasy production. So far, JJ is averaging 90 receiving yards (102 yards at home [1 London Game] vs. 72 yards on the road) on 8.6 targets and 5.2 receptions with .8TDs per game. This is with Sam Darnold as his starting QB, a guy who the majority of Fantasy Football managers believed was a worse QB than Bryce Young. Well, JJ might be QB proof as he is putting up monster numbers when coming into this year he was in arguably the worst position of his NFL career. JJ is WR #7 in Half PPR Scoring averaging 16.4 fantasy points per game through 5 weeks (Chase is WR #1 through 6 games played and is averaging 17.25 fantasy points per game). Once JJ has played his 6th game, he will be back to WR #1 in fantasy points per game over Chase. Vegas thinks he will continue his domination as they have set his receiving line at 91.5 yards (1.5 yards more than his season average) on 6.5 receptions (1.3 receptions more than his season average) and have given him -120 odds to score an anytime TD (3rd highest in the game). It will just be more of the same for Jefferson as he is going up against the 27th ranked defense in terms of yards allowed per game. 

Projection: 11 targets 8 receptions 125 yards 1TD

Jordan Addison WR #70 in Half PPR Scoring - 10.5 fantasy points per game  47.5 receiving yards over/under (-114 over)/3.5 receptions over/under (-156 over)/+195 Anytime TD Scorer (7th highest in game)

It’s 5 o’clock somewhere! When I first started writing this article it was 5 o’clock in London. Addison has had a rough start to the season with an ankle injury and an arrest. Not to mention his social media post after his arrest which wasn’t great either. Since then, he has posted 47.7 receiving yards (36 yards at home [London Game] vs. 53.5 yards on the road) on 5.33 targets and 3 receptions with .33TDs per game (only 3 games played). He is the WR #70 on the year in Half PPR Scoring averaging 10.5 fantasy points per game played. Vegas basically assumes he will hit his season averages as they have set his receiving line at 47.5 yards over/under with a 3.5 reception over/under and +195 odds to score an anytime TD (7th highest in the game). The issue with Addison will always be that he will never be the first read in the offense so long as JJ is there and healthy. And with Hockenson’s return imminent, he might fall down to the third target depending on where Hockenson’s health is. He is absolutely talented (as we saw last year when JJ was out), however; that might lead to more NFL wins for the Vikings as opposed to wins for your Fantasy Team this year. 

Projection: 7 targets 5 receptions 69 yards 1TD

TJ Hockenson No Vegas Over/Under

TJ is active for the first time in 2024 after suffering a major knee injury last season in Week 16. Hockenson will be another target for Darnold to utilize in their fast paced high octane offense. The only problem is who TJ siphons targets from when he is back to full. I would imagine Addison will take a back seat and possibly some of the ancillary targets that are spread around. It will be interesting to see how much, if at all; the knee injury affects Hockenson’s ability to separate and cut. I have no information to go off of outside of the Lions’ performances against TEs this season where they have given up the 9th fewest fantasy points to the position. I would expect the Vikings to ease Hockenson back into action off his injury so he might only see 40%-60% of the snaps this week. 

Projection (If He Plays): 40% snaps - 4 targets 3 receptions 33 yards 

Final Score: Detroit Lions 38 - Minnesota Vikings 31